Evan Gattis’s Latest Chapter

Posted on April 9, 2013 by D

One day there’s sure to be a movie on the life of Evan Gattis. And we’ll all be able to say, that we(Braves fans) were able to see much of it unfold before our eyes. If you can’t pull for this guy, there is something seriously wrong with you. In 26 years, he’s experienced more than most of us will in 100. The way Gattis can square up a fastball, and then share with reporters his quest for universal truth makes it easy to see him sharing a beer with anyone from Babe Ruth to Henry David Thoreau. Whether fighting addiction, or doing some serious soul searching, he’s far advanced for a rookie in many aspects, inside and out of the batter’s box.

The story David O’Brien brought us sharing all these events in Gattis’s life immediately endeared him to Braves Country. Not to mention, the dude absolutely mashed every level of pitching he’s faced. In 2011 and 2012, he went from A-AAA, while posting batting averages over .300 both years and slugging percentages over .600. If there’s ever been a player that fit in with a franchise grounded in it’s Southeastern, United States heritage and fan base, it would be this guy. Grizzly beard, stocky build, and no batting gloves, he epitomizes the athletic good ol’ boy.

Gattis drives one deep…

Then, in the second game of the 2013 season, Evan Gattis saw his name on the lineup card in the dugout. His long and winding journey to the big leagues was complete. But of course, a start in a Major League game wasn’t enough. It couldn’t be. Disney or whatever film company couldn’t have a movie that climaxed with just a name on a card. They would probably write something along the lines of…. Dad being interviewed in the crowd by the local Fox affiliate, while his son steps into the batter’s box against a future Hall of Famer. In the middle of a question, the 26 year old rookie would connect and drive a pitch deep into center. As he’s rounding first the outfielder would climb the wall, attempting to rob our protagonist’s home run. But his glove would be empty as his feet landed on Turner Field’s warning track. Gattis circles the bases and is mobbed in the dugout by teammates…. And scene. But come on, that stuff only happens in the movies……

Braves New Look Lineup Passes First Test

Posted on April 5, 2013 by D

The new look Braves offense appears to be just fine after taking two of three against the Phillies in the first series of 2013. Let’s discount that third game just a little. Cliff Lee is still as good as it gets. The temperature in Atlanta was 40 degrees while it was 45 at the same time in Philadelphia. A sweep just didn’t seem to be in the cards. That’s fine. Because if I had to place my bets on whether the Atlanta offense in 2013 will more reflect the first two games, or the third, I’d put my money on the former all day.

The Brothers Upton

If you’ve been a reader of BravesBanter, you are well aware I was as skeptical as anyone of turning over the leadoff role to a 23 year old with 166 at bats in the big leagues(most of which were in the 8 hole). But Andrelton Simmons is going to be more than adequate this year. He opened a meager 3 for 13 in the first 3 games, but almost all of his at bats were very solid and as usual, he seemed confident and comfortable in the box. Jason Heyward and Justin Upton form a dynamic left, right- 2, 3- in this lineup and will stuff the stat sheets in all five categories. Upton is clearly over the thumb issue that plagued his 2012, zapping much of the power from his swing. We know he muscled that shot to right center off Halladay, because Ol’ Roy isn’t exactly lighting up the radar gun these days.

When Freddie Gonzalez began discussing possible lineups back in March, he kept mentioning Brian McCann hitting fourth. I strongly advocated that Freddie Freeman be given that spot, regardless of Mac’s health. Freeman, my friends, is emerging into a true superstar. My only hesitation coming into the year on Freddie, was his tendency to get tied up against lefties. His .237 average last year when facing them, and those defensive swings he would employ stuck in my mind as his fatal flaw. The first inning homer off Cole Hamels did a lot to alleviate my concerns. But it wasn’t only that swing. He amassed 9 at bats against lefties in those first 3 games and went 4 for 9 with 1 homerun, 1 double, and 6 runs batted in. If he can hit lefties around a .275 clip over the course of a full season, he may be the real face of the franchise.

Might see Heyward congratulating Freeman more than vice versa…

(This is somewhat off topic, but I can’t help but see the parallels in Freeman and Heyward to McCann and Francoeur. Heyward and Francoeur were the far more heralded players coming up through the Braves system. Francoeur flamed out halfway through is fourth full season in Atlanta and Heyward had that miserable sophomore campaign. Clearly McCann became the staple out of the two and while I believe that Heyward and Freeman will both be anchors for this franchise, it’s quite possible Freeman’s numbers will indeed surpass Heyward’s.)

Most of you also know I was never enthusiastic about the B.J. Upton signing. Especially not for the terms of the contract he received. He’s 0 for 11 with 7 K’s after 3 games, but everyone knew him to be a streaky hitter. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of hot and cold. I’d personally bet on considerably more cold. We’ll see. Dan Uggla is batting .250 after 3 games. I think I heard a chorus of angels singing as I typed that previous sentence. Uggla will hit at least 20 homers this year, but if he keeps his average around that .250 mark, I’d be one of many pleasantly surprised Braves fans. While on the topic of Uggla, am I the only television viewer who is sick of hearing Chip and Joe talk about how great Uggla’s swing looks in batting practice? Newsflash: Every major leaguer looks good when they know a 75-80 mph fastball is coming…. I digress.

The rest of the lineup(Chris Johnson, Juan Francisco, Gerald Laird, Evan Gattis) provides as solid a 7-8 as there is in the National League. Though I wasn’t initially sold on the idea of straight platoon at 3B with a pair of hitters who both fare better against righties, the first few games seemed to work well enough. Both players can swing the bat well enough, but Johnson still worries me defensively. I can’t get some of his Spring Training boots out of my head quite yet. First impression of Laird is positive. A couple of knocks on Opening Night, and he seems to be solid behind the plate. Gattis is the wildcard and I’ll be doing a separate article on his storybook first game along with what the future may hold for The White Bear in Atlanta.

Gattis after his memorable first game

As with most teams in early April, reasons for optimism abound with the Braves in 2013, and a huge chunk of that has to do with what Fredi pencils in 1-8 every night. I’m not quite as worried about all the K’s as I was in Spring Training. Good hitters are going to put the ball in play and deliver in big situations. I believe that this Braves lineup has more good hitters in it than Atlanta’s seen in almost 10 years…. Don’t Stop the Chop

Braves Third Base Battle

Posted on March 13, 2013 by D

One of the pressing questions to be answered in Spring Training, was the battle for 3B. Both Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson have amassed over 30 at bats and over 60 innings defensively… Let’s check in on who has the edge for the starting job.

J. Francisco

Beginning with Juan, the hefty lefty has picked up where he left off in Winter Ball. Francisco is 10 for 34(.294), with 2 doubles, 2 homers, and 5 RBI. Staying true to past tendencies, Juan is currently posting a 9:1 K:BB ratio. People have commented that offensive productivity may not be the determining factor in this battle, since only the 8th spot in the order is what’s at stake. In the National League, the 8th hitter’s importance is somewhat diluted with the pitcher following. If Atlanta is indeed placing an increased emphasis on the two players defensive ability, Francisco has a clear edge. In 66 innings(all at 3B), he’s yet to make an error. And from a spectators point of view, appears to be smoother in transfers and footwork.

The new CJ at 3B

Johnson on the other hand, has committed a few blunders this Spring. In 67 innings(48 at 3B), he’s been charged with 3 errors(2 at 3B). On the offensive side of the spectrum, he does maintain a very slight lead in a few areas: Average- .314- .294, Hits 11- 10, Runs 8- 5, RBI 6-5, and has struck out 3 fewer times(6- 9). Though most of those disparities are so small they aren’t worth mentioning, the fact that they are so close may end up favoring Johnson. Beat writers and fans have wondered aloud if the Braves will acquire a left handed, power hitting bench bat. It seems very possible to me that Atlanta could simply allow Francisco to move into that role, and give Johnson the majority of the starts at 3B, especially if March ends with their numbers being so similar.

Though the race appears to be neck in neck, I am beginning to feel that it will take a landside advantage for Francisco to win the everyday gig. And as long as the race looks too close to call, Johnson will be starting most days at the hot corner.

5 Questions for Braves Spring Training

Posted on February 25, 2013 by D

Every Major League team comes to Spring Training with a few unresolved issues. It’s fair to say that Atlanta has fewer than most, but they still have some things to resolve over the next month….

1- Who wins the 5th spot in the Starting Rotation? Though every indication points to Julio Teheran having the inside track on this, let’s take a look at what Teheran did last Spring Training with a spot in the rotation on the line… In 16.1 innings, Teheran surrendered 22 hits, 17 earned runs, equating to a 9.37 ERA and 1.84 ERA. He gave up 9 homers, more than one every two innings. He struck out 10 while walking 8, and allowed opponents to hit .319. If Julio repeats those numbers this March, can Fredi Gonzalez really put him in the Major League rotation? I know many Braves fans and other writers are quick to point out his spectacular finish in the Dominican Winter League, and perhaps he’s able to carry that momentum into this Spring. But I’ll remain skeptical until I see him have some degree of success against Major League lineups(Marlins will not qualify).

Can Julio Teheran finally lay claim to a spot in Atlanta’s rotation?

If not Teheran, who could jettison into the rotation? Sean Gilmartin is the only guy I see who could really threaten Julio. Admittedly, Gilmartin didn’t set the world on fire in his stops at Mississippi and Gwinnett last year. In a total of 157 IP, he posted a 3.84 ERA, striking out a modest 111, and only walking 39. Those numbers are still better than what Teheran did in AAA last year(131 IP, 5.08 ERA, 97 K, 43 BB). It still seems likely that Teheran pitches well enough to make the big league team out of camp, but it certainly isn’t out of the question that Gilmartin could outperform him in March.

2- Do the Braves go with Francisco, Johnson, or both at 3B? The only position battle in Braves camp this season is at a spot where there’s been no contest for 20 years: Third Base. When replacing a first-ballot Hall of Famer, it only makes sense you need four feet to fill two shoes. Though most talking heads on ESPN and MLB Network are projecting a platoon with the left-handed Juan Francisco and right-handed Chris Johnson, it makes very little sense when looking at their career numbers. Though Johnson has accrued almost 3 times as many at bats as Francisco, both players splits favor hitting against righty’s. Francisco- .190 vs lefties, .272 vs righty’s. Johnson- .255 vs lefties, .283 vs righty’s. Johnson’s splits are clearly not as dramatic, but it would be unfair for Francisco to get all the at bats against righties. Because of this, I doubt Atlanta goes with a strict platoon. It will truly be a competition through Spring to see who gets the majority of the playing time out of the gate. Stay tuned…

New Nickname for Francisco— “Baby Panda”

3- Can Andrelton Simmons handle the lead-off spot? Out of the five questions listed, the answer to this one will probably be most influential on the Braves success this year. Atlanta brass felt enough confidence in what Simmons did with 166 at bats last year, to deal the only other potential lead off candidate, Martin Prado, to Arizona this winter. Sure, he compiled a solid .289 average, but his modest .335 OBP will need to improve some for the new look Braves middle of the order to be effective. Simmons’ glove has always been of the highest caliber, but his stick was the number one concern among scouts when he was called up in 2012 to replace the struggling Tyler Pastornicky. In less than one calendar year, Simmons has went from a perceived offensive liability at the Major League level, to the lead-off hitter for one of the best lineups in the Senior Circuit. Braves Nation saw first-hand the direct impact Michael Bourn was atop the lineup. Atlanta amassed a 56-16 record, in games when Bourn crossed the plate. Can Simmons provide a similar spark in 2013? Projections for Simmons in 2013…

4- Who backs up Gerald Laird to begin the Season? On the surface this looks like a very inconsequential issue, considering whoever wins the job will likely be sent down a few weeks into the season when Brian McCann returns. But anytime I can find a reason to talk about Evan Gattis, I’ll take it. Though Christian Bethancourt has been a fixture on Braves top prospect lists for years now, Gattis would be the most intriguing back up catcher on a Major League roster to open the 2013 season. If you haven’t heard his story, do yourself a favor and Google it. In continuing his storybook run at a Major League gig, Gattis homered in his first Spring game this past Friday against the Yankees. Not only is Gattis adequate enough to play behind the plate, he was groomed much of last year to play left-field as well. In a year that has Interleague play sprinkled all throughout the schedule, Gattis would also serve as the most prototypical DH on the Braves roster. A case can be made for several others, Bethancourt chief among them. He’s long been considered probable heir to McCann in Atlanta. His off the charts defensive acumen has him on the fast track to the Majors, but much like Simmons, his bat has its share of skeptics. Last year, in AA Mississippi, he hit a pedestrian .243 with an anemic .293 slugging percentage…. Nevertheless, Atlanta has a few compelling options for their backup to the backup catcher.

Is it just me, or does Evan Gattis look like Javy Lopez?

5- The final spot on the bench goes to…? There are a few ways to splice this one, but for now, I believe it comes down to the Braves former number one prospect, Jordan Schafer, and everybody’s favorite Seinfeld pun, Jose (George) Constanza. Schafer has fallen out of favor with both Atlanta and the Houston Astros, due in no small part to several off the field issues. Hopefully he keeps his nose clean this Spring, and gives his natural ability a chance to do the talking. Constanza grew to prominence with Braves fans when he filled in admirably for Jason Heyward throughout his awful Sophomore Slump. Both Schafer and Constanza rely on speed, offensively and defensively. While Schafer has the capability to hit for some power, Constanza’s been the more consistent Major League player. I’m sure many fans would love to see the occasional “Georgie Constanza” sighting at Turner Field, I doubt any would be disappointed if Schafer looked poised to fulfill some of his lofty, top prospect, promise.

Feel free to answer these questions with your predictions in the comments section below! April 1st, is fast approaching….. Opening Day 2013!

Braves CEO Terry McGuirk: “We’re not done.” Is David Price coming to Atlanta?

Posted on February 19, 2013 by D

In the dead days of February, at least in the sports world, Terry McGuirk has given Braves fans and all others invested in Major League Baseball something to talk about. In case you missed it, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported this from Atlanta’s CEO: “We’re not done,” McGuirk said. “We’re all about improving this team every step of the way and every chance that we can. We intend to be at this level for a long time.”Money is not going to stand between us and getting it done at this point because we are that close. I’m talking about [the] long term and short term. I’m talking about talent that is here and talent that isn’t here. When we are this close, we are going to try to push it over the top. But there is a lot of talent here.”

Some key phrases to note: “We’re not done.” “Money is not going to stand….” “Talent that is here and talent that isn’t here.” Though statements like this bring back a twinge of Ted Turner themed nostalgia, free spending on the level of other high payroll teams(Dodgers,Angels) is highly unlikely. But McGuirk must have something in mind here.

Don’t expect soon-to-be Free Agent Robinson Cano to replace Uggla in Atlanta

Free agency is not what McGuirk is referring to, at least not in the foreseeable future. Next year’s free agent class boasts talent that the Braves don’t really have a need for(Curtis Granderson, Hunter Pence, Jacoby Ellsbury, Nelson Cruz) or guys they won’t be able to afford no matter how much the payroll increases(Robinson Cano). Not to mention, Atlanta would have to find a taker for Uggla to provide space for a Cano acquisition.

Maybe McGuirk has an eye on the trade market. While it’s impossible to forecast what player may be put on the block, other than pending free agents on bad teams, there are a couple names that many experts believe will be dealt at some point in 2013, most notable of which are Giancarlo Stanton and David Price. The small market Rays and smaller market Marlins, will look to deal these blossoming superstars before they become too expensive through the arbitration process. We can confidently cross off Stanton from the list of possible targets, since the Braves outfield is set through 2015, not to mention dealing inside the division would be an added hurdle. So let’s discuss Price.

Could David Price don the Braves logo instead of the Rays?

Though Atlanta has been labeled pitching-rich for the past 20 years, there are some uncertainties past the 2013 season. Both Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm are in the final year of their current contracts. Hudson has stated in the past few weeks his desire to eventually retire a Brave. He also hinted that would most likely not be after this season. So Frank Wren, John Schuerholtz and others will have to sit down with Huddy after the season and determine how much gas is left in the tank, and how much that gas is worth moving forward.

Maholm, will most likely find a new suitor in the off-season offering more than what Atlanta would. Julio Teheran is another interesting case. If he indeed wins the fifth spot in the rotation this year, he needs to show flashes and/or stretches of the brilliance many scouts think he’s capable of. Beyond Teheran are prospects Sean Gilmartin, J.R. Graham, and much further from being MLB ready, Lucas Sims. Gilmartin and Graham may be the two biggest factors in whether or not the Braves make a run at Price next winter. If they continue to develop and are deemed ready to be in a Major League rotation, Atlanta will have to make a decision. Use one or both as headliners in a potential deal with Tampa Bay, or let them fill in the 2014 rotation.

All things considered, the only current “locks” for the 2014 rotation are Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen, and perhaps Mike Minor. Let’s say Teheran has a solid year and shows enough for the Braves to want to hold on. Let’s also assume Graham and Gilmartin dominate at Gwinnett. If Atlanta really wants to shed the “cost-conscious” label they’ve attained the last 5-10 years, here’s one thing they could do. Re-sign Hudson to a 2 year deal. Trade Minor, one of Graham/Gilmartin, + 3 other prospects for Price. That would give Atlanta a 2014 rotation of Price, Beachy, Medlen, Teheran, Hudson, and still have one of Graham or Gilmartin in Gwinnett. Imagine a team facing those first 3 guys in a 5 game NLDS against the Braves…. Quite intimidating.

Priority 1a & 1b: Sign Heyward & Freeman long-term

Other avenues McGuirk may be hinting at, and what I believe is most likely, are extensions for current Braves. I’ve already stated what I believe a fair extension would be for Jason Heyward, if Atlanta approached him some time before Spring Training– here. I would personally rank the candidates for extensions as follows: 1)Heyward 2)Freeman 3)Medlen 4)Kimbrel 5)Beachy… And depending on how the 2013 season goes, Andrelton Simmons may not be far behind the five listed. To secure those six would give the Braves front office, and fans alike, a confidence in their postseason chances year in and year out they haven’t known since the 90′s…

What do you guys think? Where will this influx of money go… A David Price trade and extension? Current Braves? Or something else I’m overlooking…. Post in the comments section below your thoughts!!

2013 Braves Season Preview: Justin Upton

Posted on February 14, 2013 by D

All smiles as Wren introduces newest Brave Justin Upton

Frank Wren had a tall task awaiting him, following the disappointing(and controversial) loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card game. Not only did the team with the 4th best record in all of baseball get bounced from the playoffs in a 9 inning nightmare, the last link to the 1995 World Series Championship team was retiring (Tribute to Chipper). How could Wren possibly construct a roster, with strict payroll constraints, that would infuse excitement into a fan base that hadn’t seen Atlanta win a playoff series since 2001?

The BJ Upton signing generated some buzz(http://bravesbanter.com/2013-roster-preview/bj-upton/), but the question marks attached to the elder Upton are too big for a front office to expect him to be a franchise player. Though Jason Heyward seems like a prototypical number 3 hitter, his numbers in that spot thus far have been less than stellar: 402 AB, .244 Avg, .320 OBP, .418 SLG, .738 OPS. It could certainly be coincidence, but the Braves rummaged all Winter for a true middle of the order, right handed bat. A guy who could without question hit third in the lineup everyday, whether facing a lefty or righty. (Heyward’s struggles with lefthanders has been well documented) And what Wren found was a perfect storm in Arizona.

After two years of trade speculation, mostly fueled by the Diamondbacks eccentric General Manager, Kevin Towers, face of the franchise outfielder, Justin Upton, was dealt to Atlanta in exchange for Martin Prado and 4 minor leaguers. Wren made a bold move for the franchise at a time when the most apparent change of guard was about to take place. Because after Bobby Cox left, the clubhouse still had Chipper Jones to turn to. With Chipper gone, who would fill that role? The “team elder/spokesperson” will more than likely be Tim Hudson or Brian McCann. But whose face would be on Season Ticket promotions? Who would star on the mostly funny, slightly corny Fox Sports commercials? Whether it was by grand design or not, Wren seemed to accomplish something much larger than anyone could have anticipated. The reason Turner Field will see it’s highest attendance total in 15 years is what Wren managed to put in the Outfield.

Upton, Upton, Heyward.. The Three 30-30 Threats

Atlanta now boasts 3 outfielders who could all have 30-30 seasons. But let’s keep the focus on Justin Upton for now. A former number 1 overall draft pick, Upton began his professional baseball life with the expectation of reaching star status. After finishing 4th in the MVP race in 2011, it seemed his career was about to shoot into the stratosphere. A thumb injury, however, slowed his ascend in 2012, leaving many to wonder if he could regain his form from the prior season. The Diamondbacks viewed him as a little too “stylish” and “cool” for their liking, and the Braves swooped in to place their bets on the 25 year old fulfilling his lofty promise and potential.

In 2013, it appears that Fredi Gonzalez wants to hit J-Up between J-Hey and B-Mac. Personally, I’d be shocked if Freddie Freeman doesn’t get a majority of the clean-up spot at-bats. Regardless, with a potentially high OBP guy like Heyward, and run producers like Freeman, BJ Upton, and McCann hitting behind him, Justin should enjoy lofty counting numbers in the Run and RBI categories. Whether his power can generate 30 HR in Turner Field is questionable, but a healthy Justin Upton would be safe to pencil in at LEAST 20-25. In the field, the career long Right Fielder should make a smooth transition to the less demanding Left. He’ll surely boast one of the strongest arms among Left Fielders and his range is above average.

Wren brought him in for his work at the plate. Upton needs to provide the Braves a “Chipper-like” presence in that third spot, that other teams are forced to focus on and pitch around. For a team that will likely strike out in bunches and constantly be in the midst of hot and cold streaks, Upton has to be a consistent threat, hitting for both power and average. Barring that thumb injury recurring, I have a good feeling that Justin will deliver all that the Braves anticipated when they acquired him: 2013 Season Forecast: .297Avg, 28 HR, 101 RBI, 94 R, 24 SB, .365 OBP

2013 NL East Preview: New York Mets (4th place)

Posted on February 13, 2013 by D

I waited a few extra days to post this installment in the NL East Preview, to see if the Mets would sign Michael Bourn. It seems they weren’t going to seriously pursue Bourn until they were guaranteed the 11th pick in the upcoming draft would remain in their possession. They didn’t get that, and Bourn wound up in Cleveland. That leaves Mets fans, hopeful of staying out of last place in one of baseball’s toughest divisions.

Wright after signing 8 year extension

The offense looks eerily similar to what the Marlins (Link) will run out of the dugout every day: a lot of mediocre and unproven players surrounding one star. That star is, of course, David Wright. In one of the few pieces of encouraging news for the 2013 Mets, the club announced an 8 year extension with their franchise player. Other than Catcher, John Buck, the rest of the lineup will look frighteningly familiar to New Yorkers: C John Buck, 1B Ike Davis, 2B Daniel Murphy, 3B David Wright, SS Ruben Tejada, LF Lucas Duda, CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, RF Mike Baxter. While this unit certainly won’t enthuse a casual fan, Davis and Murphy both have the potential to be good Major Leaguers(not to mention Murphy is a Brave killer).

Wanna be like Ike…Of 2011

Davis is especially intriguing. After his impressive rookie campaign in 2010, he came out of the gates in 2011 blazing(.302Avg,7HR,.935OPS in 36 games) before an injury from a collision with David Wright cost him the rest of the season. Last year, he showed power(32HR) but never showed the consistency the Mets would’ve liked(.227Avg). He also struck out more than twice as much as he walked: 141K’s to 61BB. For the Mets to stay in the race for any time at all, Davis must provide the protection Wright needs and deserves. The Outfield seems to be where the Mets really don’t stack up. Duda, Nieuwenhuis, and Baxter can’t create the same buzz as Upton, Upton, and Heyward, or any buzz for that matter.

While the everyday eight leave quite a bit to be desired, the Starting Rotation is solid, even after trading R.A. Dickey. With a mix of young talent and established veterans, the Mets will likely lean on their pitching to keep them in games all year. Their rotation(in terms of production) will probably fall as follows: Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum, and Dillon Gee. Not mentioned is Georgia native and top prospect, Zack Wheeler. He’ll start the season in the Minors, but would almost assuredly be called up to start if injury befalls any of the top five. Whether or not Niese is a true number 1 Starter is certainly debatable, but his numbers against Atlanta are very ace-like. In 2012, Niese started 4 games against the Braves, going 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Harvey was one of the most electrifying rookies last year, bursting onto the scene with his first two starts(12IP, 17K, 2ER) against Philadelphia and Washington. He’s a soon to be top of the rotation talent according to most scouts. Santana and Marcum provide veteran stability, if healthy. And that’s a huge if. All in all, the rotation isn’t in the Nationals category, but isn’t as far behind the Braves as one might think.

Can Harvey live up to hype?

The bullpen is a big question mark. Frank Francisco may be the de facto closer, but his numbers last year(5.53ERA, 1.61WHIP) certainly leave the door open for someone else to step through. That someone else could be Bobby Parnell, who has been deemed closer of the future for the past couple of years. This could be the year he takes that control of that job and doesn’t look back. Either way, a relative lack of depth in the ‘pen could be problematic for New York if their starters can’t consistently go 7+ innings. 2013 Prediction: 78-84

2013 Braves Season Preview: Kris Medlen

Posted on February 8, 2013 by D

Fredi Gonzalez managed to stumble upon something great in 2012. Kris Medlen proved to be a pretty good starting pitcher. I recently looked back at what was written leading up to “Meds” first start in 2012, and found it quite hilarious now. Below is an excerpt from Carroll Rogers, beat writer from the Atlanta Journal Constitution, on Medlen getting the opportunity to start for a game:

This change is likely for one night, after the Braves acquired left-hander Paul Maholm in a deal from the Chicago Cubs late Monday night.

“He’ll start tomorrow and we’ll re-evaluate and see where we go,” Braves general manager Frank Wren said after Monday’s trade. “The thing about Medlen, he really has been a valuable guy and as we’ve contemplated the start the last four days, we’ve been in situations where he would have been very valuable in the games (out of the bullpen). So it was pretty obvious that we missed him.”

Face of an Ace?

It was quite clear, the Braves envisioned Medlen only starting one game. Boy, did he let his work on the mound do all the convincing necessary to keep him in the rotation. Everyone’s familiar with his sensational line after moving into the rotation on July 31st: 12 starts, 9-0, 0.97 ERA(excluding Wild Card game). He quickly drew comparisons to Greg Maddux for his smaller stature and craftiness in picking corners and his outstanding change-up. But have Braves fans and national analysts set the bar to high for Medlen? Is he really an “ace”?

As soon as Medlen’s unexpected run landed him in Cy Young conversations, advanced metric statisticians pointed out that luck was definitely playing a factor in his ultra success. The most brought up stat was Medlen’s BABIP(batting average of balls in play). For his career, Medlen had posted a 2.95 BABIP(mostly out of the bullpen), a little better than the “average” Major League pitcher. Medlen’s 2012 BABIP was 2.55. In comparison, RA Dickey: .278/ Gio Gonzalez: .271. Though I agree it’s unlikely for Meds to post a .255 mark over a 200 inning season, but is it not possible that Medlen simply performs better as a starter? That career .295 included over half of his innings coming out of the ‘pen. I think it’s very likely that Medlen will fall somewhere between .255 and .295 in a full year starting. Maybe in the .275 range. That may not lead to a 0.97 ERA, but it could translate to an ERA in the low 2′s.

Turner Field needs a little more MEDication in 2013

Call me old school, but I still value the Strikeout, as being a huge indication of how “lucky” a pitcher is. If a pitcher is in the midst of a successful run and not striking out many, odds are the excess of balls in play will eventually fall for hits. This doesn’t describe Medlen at all. Once he moved into the Rotation on July 31st, he pitched 83 2/3 innings. He struck out 84 batters. Averaging over 1 K per inning is enough for me to believe that Medlen is truly fooling opponents. Maybe that sample size isn’t enough for the Braves front office to approach Meds with an extension, but I would have zero qualms with something in the range of a 4 year, $30MM extension.

Much like the Braves new look Outfield, I would think the front office is very excited about the potential top of the rotation. Once healthy, a 1-2 combination of Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen could be very good, for a long time. One concern here is that both have undergone Tommy John surgery. Some pitchers bounce back stronger than before, others seem to have recurring problems. The potential is there, though. For Medlen, he seemed to be even better after surgery. 2013 may be only the beginning: 2013 Season Projections: 17-6, 2.23 ERA, 185 K, 39 BB, 1.08 WHIP

2013 Braves Season Preview: Dan Uggla

Posted on February 6, 2013 by D

As disappointed as Braves fans were after Uggla’s first season in Atlanta, his second was worse. His batting average dropped 13 points from .233 to .220. Homers from 36 to 19. Hits: 140 to 115. Slugging percentage: .453 to .384. Strikeouts: 156 to 168. And to top it off, Atlanta has 1/7th of the payroll tied up in Uggla through the year 2015. Let us all take a moment to violently throw up in a nearby toilet.

A “poor investment” to say the least

He keeps up this pace, Atlanta will soon be paying $13MM annually for a mediocre defensive second basemen that will flirt with the Mendoza line, while hitting 15-20 homers. As I write this, in February, we can be optimistic and hopeful that Uggla some how turns around this nasty trend. But let’s not allow that optimism to turn into delusion. This is not 2010, Uggla’s career year in which he smacked 33 HR while batting .287, before he signed a lucrative, long term deal. Perhaps the security the Braves gave Uggla has led to some sort of complacency, but I digress.

Two years removed from that tremendous campaign, the expectations from most fans have subsided. I don’t know a single, rational Braves fan that seriously thinks Uggla can hit 30 homers in a year with a respectable average of .270+. But here’s what I think we can hope for, in the perpetually hopeful months of February and January, when pitchers and catchers report and Spring Training fires up: Hit 30 homers OR hit .270+. It’s obvious that he simply can’t do both, but as he’s entrenched now in the 7 spot in the Braves lineup, getting one of those things would more than suffice for his reduced role.

We’re all scratching our heads with ya Uggla

Based on a small sample of interviews I’ve heard Uggla give, he doesn’t seem like the sharpest tool in the shed. So, in my estimation, seeing Uggla continue to swing for the downs and come up empty isn’t a result of him being uncoachable or hard-headed. I truly believe he lacks the baseball IQ to make any significant adjustments to his approach. He’s relied on the “see ball, hit ball” method his entire life. Most Major League hitters begin their careers with this frame of mind, but when you eventually hit a prolonged slump(and they all do), the truly great players figure out how to make adjustments. All the hours he’s spent with Greg Walker, Scott Fletcher or Chipper Jones has done nothing for him at the plate.

Is it possible Uggla can turn back the clock? To a certain degree, yes. However with every passing year, it seems more realistic that Uggla’s best days are behind him. He’s a .220-.250 hitter with occasional pop. 2013 Season Projection: .238 Avg, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 59 R, .320 OBP

2013 NL East Preview: Miami Marlins(5th place)

Posted on February 6, 2013 by D

What to say about the 2012 Miami Marlins? Has there ever been more build up for a team that failed in every area imaginable. They build a brand new,uh…eccentric, stadium. Sign Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, and made a run at Albert Pujols. Acquire Ozzie Guillen, the most recognizable Latino manager in baseball for the most Hispanic city in the United States. Even the television network, Showtime, chose the Marlins as the team to follow for their series titled: The Franchise. In early April Ozzie declared his love for dictator Fidel Castro, and the Marlins were just as big of a disaster on the field for the rest of the season.

One of the only reasons to catch a Marlins game…

I’d feel sorry for their fans(all 72 of them) if they hadn’t won more World Series than the Braves in considerably less time. Gone from the roster are: Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, Omar Infante, Anibal Sanchez, and John Buck. Not to mention every journalist’s favorite quote, Ozzie Guillen. With those guys, they went 69-93. Without them, 100 losses certainly isn’t out of the question.

Check out their projected starting position players: C:Rob Brantly, 1B:Logan Morrison, 2B:Donovan Solano, 3B:Placido Polanco, SS:Adeiny Hechavarria, LF:Juan Pierre, CF:Justin Ruggiano, RF:Giancarlo Stanton. Ouch. Other than Stanton, there isn’t much to get excited about for South Beach baseball fans. Stanton is the only Marlin that would undoubtedly start for the Nationals and Braves. That being said, the Nationals got the best of the Braves many years when a similar statement could be made about their talent differential. Nonetheless, this offense should produce a lot of solo homers from the artist formerly known as Mike Stanton, but very few runs.

How much longer will Stanton play in Miami?

Their pitching is nearly as pedestrian as the starting position players. Their “ace” and Opening Day starter should be Ricky Nolasco. After that, in no particular order, are: Wade LeBlanc, Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, and Jacob Turner. This may be the only positive statement in this article, so pay attention. The Marlins did well, in my estimate, to land Turner in the trade that sent Infante and Sanchez to the Tigers. Turner is considered a true, future, top of the rotation starter by many scouts, and is ready to contribute at the Major League level. Enough of all that Marlin praise. In another trade, the Fish sold Hanley Ramirez for pennies on the dollar, and brought back Nathan Eovaldi, a very limited, young pitcher with little upside to be anything more than a number 4 or 5 starter. Other than seeing Turner grow up on the mound this year, not much to be optimistic about here.

The Marlins found a way to lose at an alarming rate with marquee players like Ramirez, Reyes, and Johnson. I don’t see how they can improve by fielding a roster that isn’t much better than some Triple A teams. I’ll be nice and say they avoid the 100 loss mark….. 2013 Prediction: 63-99

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